I have received many emails already telling me just how ridiculous my article “
Super Bowl XL: Black vs. Blue” was. I was told it was not scientific, and in no way helped to show who was going to win the big game on Sunday. Truth be told, that was pretty much the point. There is no real way to predict a winner, so helmet color was just as good as the 8 million other facts I have read (like starting QB’s wearing #8 are 5-0 in Super Bowls). None of that matters! But since my readers insist on some real advice on picking this weekend’s winner, I’ve opted to use history as my guide. Here is a look back at the previous 39 Super Bowls, and a nugget from each that may help us determine who will win #40. Super Bowl I – Green Bay 35, Kansas City 10: The more storied franchise wins as the Packers beat the champs of the upstart AFC in the first ever Super Bowl. Advantage: Steelers (Pittsburgh has 4 titles; the Seahawks are playing in the first Super Bowl). Super Bowl II – Green Bay 33, Oakland 14: Vince Lombardi, a coach who already won a Super Bowl, goes back to win his second. Advantage: Seahawks (Seattle coach Mike Holmgren has already won one Super Bowl, and like SB II winner Vince Lombardi, he won his first one with the Packers). Super Bowl III – NY Jets 16, Baltimore 7: A cocky young quarterback, Joe Namath, guarantees victory for the champs of the AFC and then leads his team to the title. Advantage: Pittsburgh (Steelers QB Ben Rothlisberger has already told Jerome Bettis he would deliver him 4 game balls this post-season, and he only has 1 more to go). Super Bowl IV – Kansas City 23, Minnesota 7: The Chiefs, a team who lost their most recent Super Bowl appearance, beats a team playing in their first Super Bowl. Advantage: Pittsburgh (The Steelers lost Super Bowl XXX to the Cowboys, the Seahawks have never been there before). Super Bowl V – Baltimore 16, Dallas 13: “The backwards Super Bowl”, as the team that had less time of possession and more turnovers wins, and LB Chuck Howley of the Cowboys becomes the only player to win MVP on a losing team. Advantage: Pittsburgh (the win over Indianapolis proved the Steelers are quite capable of winning ugly, and Seattle’s Lofa Tatupu is quite capable of walking away with MVP, win or lose). Super Bowl VI – Dallas 24, Miami 3: Although Cowboys QB Roger Staubach won the MVP; it was Dallas’ record 252 yards rushing that won the game for them, showing that there is often no substitute for the top ground attack. Advantage: Pittsburgh (The Steelers might have The Bus, but the Seahawks have the NFL MVP).Super Bowl VII – Miami 14, Washington 7: Dophins S Jake Scott wins MVP as the team with the best defensive backfield becomes World Champs. Advantage: Pittsburgh (Even though Seattle’s Macus Trufant is the best cover man in the game, the Steelers’ safeties, All-Pro Troy Polamalu and Chris Hope, give them the edge here). Super Bowl VIII – Miami 24, Minnesota 7: Larry Csonka was the MVP and the man that Minnesota couldn’t stop. Miami rode him all day to 145 yards on 33 carries, enabling the most dominant back in the game to take home the title. Advantage: Seattle. (Record breaking back Shaun Alexander is starting for Seattle. Willie Parker will be getting the bulk of the carries for the Steelers). Super Bowl IX – Pittsburgh 35, Dallas 31: Steelers’ wide receivers Lynn Swann and John Stallworth combined for 239 yards and 3 touchdowns, as the team with the more explosive wide outs wins the big game. Advantage: Pittsburgh (Hines Ward and Antwaan Randle El are a more explosive duo than the Seahawks’ Darrell Jackson and Bobby Engram…unless of course you ask Darrell Jackson). Super Bowl X – Pittsburgh 16, Minnesota 6: Defense dominated as the Steel Curtain led Pittsburgh to it’s second consecutive Super Bowl title. Advantage: None (These two teams seem to be evenly matched on the defensive side of the football). Super Bowl XI – Oakland 32, Minnesota 14: The more potent offense prevailed in this one as the Raiders ate up the Purple People Eaters for a record 429 of total offense. Advantage: Seattle. (Seattle has the more explosive offense, finishing 2nd in the NFL this season in total offense. Pittsburgh was 16th). Super Bowl XII – Dallas 27, Denver 10: The difference makers in this game were on the defensive line. The only Co-MVP’s in Super Bowl history, Randy White and Harvey Martin, led the defensive that forced four turnovers in the game. Advantage: Pittsburgh. (All-Pro Casey Hampton and Aaron Smith give the Steelers the advantage on the D-Line in this match up). Super Bowl XIII - Pittsburgh 35, Seattle 31: In a battle of quarterbacks, it was the free-slinging Terry Bradshaw who would beat Roger Staubach and capture the MVP Award with a 318 yard nearly perfect passing display. Advantage: None. (Although Hasselbeck may be the better QB week in and week out, each had the same number of 300 yard passing games this season and both had 98 QB Ratings during the regular season). Super XIV – Pittsburgh 31, LA Rams 19: Again it was Bradshaw with over 300 yards, again it was Bradshaw winning the MVP, and again it was Bradshaw who made the biggest difference in the biggest game. Advantage: None (See Super Bowl XIII). Super Bowl XV – Oakland 27, Philadelphia 10: The Raiders’ Jim Plunkett, once a Patriots draft pick, won the MVP Award and proved that a QB that had moved on to his second team was still capable of winning a Super Bowl. Advantage: Seattle. (Seahawks QB Hasselbeck began as a backup to Bret Favre in Green Bay). Super Bowl XVI – San Francisco 26, Cincinnati 21: The 49ers won their first Super Bowl behind MVP Joe Montana, but likely would not have been able to do so without the 4 field goals courtesy of Ray Wersching, proving that the kicker is a vital asset to a team’s asset in the big game. Advantage: None. (The Seahawks Josh Brown and the Steelers Jeff Reed are about equal on the field. Brown has better numbers, but in much better conditions, which makes this a tossup). Super Bowl XVII – Washington 27, Miami 17: John Riggins rushed for a record 166 yards on 38 carries behind the offensive line known as “The Hogs”, proving that a great offensive line can be an invaluable asset in the Super Bowl. Advantage: Seattle. (With three Pro Bowl players, led by the best tackle in football Walter Jones, the Seahawks have the edge over what is a very good Steelers line). Super Bowl XVIII – LA Raiders 38, Washington 9: Although this turned into the biggest blowout in Super Bowl history at the time, and Raiders RB Marcus Allen wound up with the MVP, the game first shifted when L.A.’s Derrick Jensen blocked Jeff Hayes’ punt and recovered it in the end zone for a touchdown, giving L.A. a 7-0 lead and putting them on their way to the title. Advantage: Pittsburgh (The Steelers punter, Chris Gardocki, has made an NFL record 1,112 punts without ever having one blocked. It’s unlikely the tides will not be turned by a punt being stuffed down Pittsburgh’s throat in this game). Super Bowl XIX – San Francisco 38, Miami 16: Superstars Joe Montana and Roger Craig got the glory in this one, with Montana winning the MVP, but it was backup running back Wendell Tyler who may have given San Fran their biggest boost. Tyler rushed for 65 yards and caught four catches for 70 yards, accumulating 135 yards of total offense and proving that a part time back can make a huge difference in the outcome. Advantage: Pittsburgh (Who better to have as your back off the bench than a future Hall-of-Famer like Jerome Bettis?). Super Bowl XX – Chicago 46, New England 10: This was a case of the dominant team in their conference, and #1 playoff seed, battling the lowest seeded Wild Card team. Sound familiar? Like the Patriots, the Steelers won three road playoff games to get here. Like Chicago, Seattle won two home playoff games to get here. Advantage: Seattle (Pittsburgh would become the first team to be a #6 seed that goes onto win the Super Bowl if they are victorious in Detroit). Super Bowl XXI – NY Giants 39, Denver 20: MVP Phil Simms was the star, completing 22 of 25 passes for 268 and 3 TDs, but you don’t have those types of numbers without great targets, and Simms’ biggest and best target was sure-handed tight end Mark Bavaro who had 4 catches for 51 yards and a touchdown. Advantage: Pittsburgh (Rookie Heath Miller has proven to be everything the Steelers could have asked for as a blocker and receiver. The Seahawks Jeremy Stevens is big and quotable). Super Bowl XXII – Washington 42, Denver 10: Led by MVP QB Doug Williams, the ‘Skins scored 35 points on five consecutive possessions, turning a 10-0 deficit into a blowout of an advantage. Advantage: Seattle (Even on their best day I don’t see the Steelers scoring on five consecutive possessions. The Seahawks could do it any game against anyone). Super Bowl XXIII – San Francisco 20, Pittsburgh 16: Super Bowl MVP Jerry Rice caught 11 passes for 215 yards and a touchdown and showed that the best player on the planet is sometimes the key ingredient to a championship team. Advantage: Seattle (Okay, so Tom Brady is still the best player on the planet, for Shaun Alexander did win the MVP, so he’s as close as anyone in this game comes). Super Bowl XXIV – San Francisco 55, Denver 10: In the biggest Super Bowl blowout to date, the 49ers dominated from the start and showed that a long-tenured coach is sometimes just destined not to bring his team a title, as the Broncos Dan Reeves’ moved to 0-3 as Denver’s head coach in the big game. Advantage: Seattle (The Steelers’ Bill Cowher is the longest tenured coach in the NFL, but maybe it’s simply not to be in the big game for Pitt’s main man). Super Bowl XXV – NY Giants 20, Buffalo 19: This game will always be remembered for one player: Buffalo kicker Scott Norwood, who missed wide right to seal the Bills’ fate. This showed that it’s not always the best kicker, but the most clutch kicker, who will determine the outcome. Advantage: Pittsburgh (The Steelers’ Reed was 2-2 on game winning tries this season; the Seahawks’ Brown was 2-3, missing a potential game winner against the Redskins on October 2nd). Super Bowl XXVI – Washington 37, Buffalo 24: A balanced attack beats a superstar. The Bills’ Thurman Thomas was the AFC’s leading rusher during the regular season, but struggled in the Super Bowl, He finished as the 5th leading rusher in the game with 13 yards on 10 carries. This shows a team concept is sometimes better than one superstar…at least if there is no backup plan to the superstar. Advantage: Pittsburgh (The Steelers 3rd string back, Duce Staley, is still a very capable runner, whereas the Seahawks will be in big trouble if Alexander struggles or is injured). Super Bowl XXVII – Dallas 52, Buffalo 17: The Bills Jim Kelly went down early with an injury and the Bills never had a chance from then on as the Cowboys quickly turned this one into a rout. Troy Aikman (4 touchdowns, 0 interceptions) showed in order to be a winning Super Bowl QB you need to be a healthy Super Bowl QB. Advantage: Seattle. (Pittsburgh’s Rothlisberger missed 4 games due to injury this season; Seattle’s Hasselbeck has missed only 2 starts in the last three and half years). Super Bowl XXVIII – Dallas 30, Buffalo 13: Dallas proved that the NFC was the dominant conference in the NFL, winning the conference’s 10th consecutive Super Bowl. But tides have changed, as the AFC is now clearly the cream of the crop, and have won 6 of the past 8 title games. Advantage: Pittsburgh (This game will prove just how dominant the AFC really is as the AFC’s #6 seed battled the top seeded team from the NFC). Super Bowl XXIX – San Francisco 49, San Diego 26: Steve Young emerged from the shadows of Hall of Fame QB Joe Montana, who he backed up for years, to win a Super Bowl title of his own. In the process he broke Montana’s record by throwing 5 TD passes to go along with 325 passing yards. Advantage: Seattle (Hasselbeck used to back up future Hall of Famer Brett Favre…Rothlisberger used to back up Tommy Maddox). Super Bowl XXX – Dallas 27, Pittsburgh 17 – A cornerback, Larry Brown, made the biggest difference in this game, intercepting two passes, returning them for a 44 and 33 yards, and walking away with the MVP Award over his more heralded teammates. Advantage: Seattle (If there was one cornerback, on paper, that seems capable of stealing the show it is the Seahawks’ Marcus Trufant. But then again, many people would have assumed it would have been Pittsburgh’s Rod Woodson, not Brown, in SB XXX). Super Bowl XXXI – Green Bay 35, New England 21: In this battle of big-armed QB’s, Green Bay’s Favre and the Patriots’ Drew Bledsoe, it was a special teams player that stole the show with his 99 yard kickoff return for a touchdown, and his 244 overall return yards. Advantage: Pittsburgh (Neither team ran back a kickoff return for a TD all season, but the Steelers’ Antwaan Randle El ran back two punts to the house and is very capable of making a very big difference in this game). Super Bowl XXXII – Denver 31, Green Bay 24: Terrell Davis, the most productive running back in the NFL, was the most productive man on the field this day, rushing for 157 yards and a record 3 touchdowns on the ground. Once again, it looks as though having the best running back (or player for that matter) is not a bad thing on Super Bowl Sunday. Advantage: Seattle (Once again, having the MVP aboard pays dividends for the NFC Champs). Super Bowl XXXIII – Denver 34, Atlanta 19: A future Hall of Famer, John Elway, wins the final game of his football career (and wins MVP in the process) before riding off into retirement. Advantage: Pittsburgh (Jerome Bettis, another future Hall of Famer, may be calling it quits after this one). Super Bowl XXXIV – St. Louis 23, Tennessee 16: The Rams brought the best offense on the planet to the big game, and that was enough to hold on to the victory against the Titans, led by Super Bowl MVP quarterback Kurt Warner. Advantage: Seattle (See Super Bowl XI). Super Bowl XXXV – Baltimore 34, NY Giants 7: The Ravens’ MLB Ray Lewis was the difference maker in this one, earning Super Bowl MVP honors. He had no sacks, no interceptions, no touchdowns, but proved what a huge difference the man in the middle can make when the defense is clicking on all cylinders. Advantage: Pittsburgh (As good as Seattle linebacker Lofa Tatupu is, the Steelers’ James Farrior is even better). Super Bowl XXXVI – New England 20, St. Louis 17: The Patriots were huge underdogs coming into the game, but this game showed why the Super Bowls are played on the field, and not in the papers. Bill Belichick devised a brilliant game plan to shut down the “Greatest Show on Turf”, and the underdog Pats walked away with their first title. Advantage: Seattle (The Seahawks are the ‘dogs in SB XL, but until the Steelers can win on the field they haven’t won anything. They don’t actually start the game up 4 points, unless you’re a gambler). Super Bowl XXXVII – Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 21: A team that is making just their first ever Super Bowl appearance proved that a big-game rookie can knock off a franchise with Super Bowl appearances, and victories, in their history. Advantage: Seattle (The Seahawks are making appearance #1. The Steelers are making appearance #6).Super Bowl XXXVIII – New England 32, Carolina 29: Just as Scott Norwood proved how costly having a non-clutch kicker can be, Adam Vinatieri proved (for the second year in a row) how valuable it is to have one on your side. Advantage: Pittsburgh (See Super Bowl XXV). Super Bowl XXXIX – New England 24, Philadelphia 21: Safety Rodney Harrison was one of many stars for the Patriots who won in their typical “team” mode. Harrison had two key interceptions in the game for the Pats, helping to seal their third Super Bowl title in four years. Advantage: Pittsburgh (Troy Polomatu is as close as anyone in this game can get to matching all that Rodney brought to the table for the Pats). Final Score: PITTSBURGH STEELERS 19, Seattle Seahawks 16.For all of you who didn’t think that my article analyzing the base colors Super Bowl contestants have worn wasn’t scientific enough, hopefully this re-assured you that it did in fact have some merit. Whether it’s based on helmet color or based on past Super Bowl history, it appears that the Pittsburgh Steelers are about to join the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers as the only 5-time champions in history. Should they even bother playing the game? They have black helmets and history on their side, does Seattle stand a chance?